TBI urges the government to finally back Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields at pace as part of long-standing case to address Britain’s “systemic energy crisis”.
The Iran war has exposed the UK’s structural vulnerability to fossil-fuel shocks despite 70 per cent of energy demand still reliant on oil and gas.
UK risks falling behind global competitors instead of pursuing electrification and cheaper power – the only way to achieve energy security and net zero 2050.
TBI has urged the government to back the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields as part of its long-standing case to address Britain’s “systemic energy crisis” – one that is already reshaping supply chains, trade routes and the fundamentals of energy security.
This is not a case for changing course because of the Iran war, TBI argues, but for recognising that the UK should already have taken steps to strengthen domestic supply and reduce exposure to volatile global markets. The conflict is already exposing this vulnerability: petrol prices have risen at the fastest monthly rate on record, while food inflation is forecast to reach up to 9 per cent this year as energy and fertiliser costs surge – showing how quickly global shocks feed through to the UK economy.
In its new paper More Than Clean Power: Electrification Is the UK’s Best Bet for Resilience, TBI argues the Iran conflict should not be seen as a temporary disruption, but part of a wider energy crisis that exposes the UK to global fossil-fuel shocks – driving economic disruption and increasing costs across the system. It calls for a broader “reset” of Britain’s energy strategy – while maintaining the commitment to net zero by 2050 – focused on electrification, cheaper power and pragmatic resilience; arguing the UK’s approach is increasingly out of step with global competitors.
In economies such as China, the US and India, energy policy is focused on delivering abundant, reliable and low-cost electricity to drive growth and industrial competitiveness, with clean energy scaling as part of that broader strategy. By contrast, the UK debate remains too ideological, TBI argues, with the government focused on decarbonising power supply only and the opposition on expanding domestic oil and gas. Neither confronts the central challenge: only around a fifth of UK energy demand is currently met through electricity, leaving the wider economy heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
TBI emphasises that its approach supports net zero by 2050 – but argues that this goal will only be achieved through a more practical strategy focused on electrification, affordability and resilience.
Author of the paper, TBI’s director of climate & energy policy Tone Langengen, said:
“Iran hasn’t just been an energy shock – it’s been a cost-of-living shock and a test of Britain’s economic resilience. But the case for strengthening domestic supply and backing projects like Jackdaw and Rosebank was already strong – the crisis has simply exposed how vulnerable the UK remains without it.
“If the government doubles down on the wrong parts of the system, the UK will remain exposed to the same vulnerabilities. But this is also an opportunity to reset – including by accelerating domestic supply to reduce reliance on volatile imports and support UK jobs and tax revenues.
“A credible strategy must do three things: manage today’s system, reduce exposure to shocks and reshape the energy system over time. The lesson from Iran is clear: the UK doesn’t just need more clean power, but electrification, greater resilience and a more affordable system over time. Without it, households will face repeated price shocks, businesses will carry persistently high costs and the transition itself will fail.”
At present, the UK is caught in a self-reinforcing loop: high electricity prices slow electrification; weak electrification keeps fossil-fuel demand high; and continued reliance on fossil fuels leaves the UK exposed to the price shocks that drive costs across the economy. The paper argues that “stabilisation measures” are urgently needed to reduce the UK’s exposure:
Accelerate domestic energy supply: TBI urges the government to back the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields “at pace” to strengthen domestic production, support UK jobs and tax revenues and reduce reliance on volatile imports. It warns that delaying such developments at a time of low storage and rising global competition risks increasing dependence on volatile international markets. The paper also calls for action to unblock viable projects, including legislative measures, reform of the Energy Profits Levy and a more stable licensing framework.
Better target energy-bill support and accelerate electrification: TBI calls for more precise, data-driven support for households and businesses – moving away from costly blanket schemes – and for government to accelerate electrification where it is already viable by bringing forward funding and removing regulatory barriers.
Longer term, the paper argues the UK needs a more fundamental reset. The strategic focus should shift from supply alone to demand – reducing the economy’s structural dependence on fossil fuels by accelerating electrification across transport, heating and industry. However, TBI warns electrification will only succeed if electricity is abundant and affordable.
This requires moving beyond a strategy focused solely on clean-power deployment towards a “Cheaper Power 2030, Net Zero 2050” approach – prioritising least-cost system design, demand growth and market reform, as set out in TBI’s previous paper Cheaper Power 2030, Net Zero 2050: Resetting the UK’s Electricity Strategy for the Future. It also needs a credible framework for managing continued oil and gas demand through the transition, including stable investment conditions for the North Sea and more effective, targeted support during future crises, as outlined in Why Britain Needs an Energy-Strategy Reset.