Tony Blair calls for new approach to UK-EU relations “rooted in the reality of 2026” not “re-running the debates of 2016.”
Britain should deepen cooperation with Europe now, make the reforms needed to get its own economy fit and competitive, and make a long-term commitment to rejoining the EU - but only if the bloc reforms too, according to a major new report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI).
Ahead of the expected UK-EU Summit later this year, the report – ‘Beyond Leave and Remain: A Path to Rejoining a Reformed Europe’ calls for a new, pragmatic strategy on Europe that moves beyond the decade old Leave and Remain arguments, to meet a new age of power, setting out a plan of how to get there.
Writing in the foreword to the report, TBI Executive Chairman, Tony Blair says: “We need a new approach which makes sense of the world as it has changed in this decade and which treats the question of our future relationship in Europe not as a question about whether Britain ‘reverses’ Brexit but about whether we can secure a modern relationship with Europe which is in our national interest today.”
The report argues the world has entered a period of great-power competition dominated by the US and China. Europe has the raw strength to compete – a combined economy worth $32 trillion - but that strength is scattered across 27 countries and Brussels’ institutions. According to OBR estimates, the current UK-EU settlement will reduce long-term productivity by 4%, with trade both ways 15% lower.
Crucially, the report makes clear Britain’s commitment to rejoining is conditional. If the EU doesn’t reform, becoming more competitive and faster at making decisions, Britain should be ready to stay outside, continuing to corporate with Europe where it’s mutually useful across energy, technology and defence.
Tony Blair says: “We should be clear that we want back into a formal relationship with the EU. But it must be a Europe on a credible path to reform, a Europe of nation states, a Europe capable of being a genuine global power. Otherwise, though Britain should continue to cooperate with the EU where it is in our mutual interest to do so, and though we should always remain open to changing circumstances, Britain will show that it can and is prepared to remain independent.”
The report sets out three moves for how Britain should approach Europe from here:
First, scrap the old red lines. Replace the arguments about the Customs Union, Single Market, freedom of movement and financial contributions with one simple test for every decision: is it worth it? So rather than asking whether they pass a political test, they should pass a practicality test: will they enhance Britain and Europe’s competitivity, competence and capability in the world of 2026. This is what the paper calls a ‘Power Maximising Test’.
Second, start building things together now, before any question of membership is even on the table – in defence, energy and technology. That means a new UK-EU Industrial Council and rejoining the EU’s €150bn SAFE defence fund. A new European Energy Security Partnership, turning the North Sea into a shared energy hub, and reconnecting to EU electricity markets saving British billpayers up to £370m a year. And joint work on checking AI systems are safe and on frontier technologies like quantum computing.
Third, make Europe move faster. Europe’s biggest problem isn’t a lack of institutions but a lack of delivery. Britain should help turn the European Political Community from a forum for dialogue into a working one for power, pulling together willing countries to get things built and done.
Author of the report, TBI’s Director Tone Langengen, said: “Europe reorganised itself around peace after the Second World War, and around integration after the Cold War. Now it must reorganise around the condition of today - power. Countries are competing to secure the capabilities that will underpin influence in the 21st century. Britain should help lead that shift, building up its power in defence, energy and technology, working with Europe as an equal partner, not refighting the arguments of 2016.”
TBI’s Senior Director of Policy & Politics, Ryan Wain, said: “Britain shouldn’t rejoin the EU as it is. It should rejoin the one that must come next: a superpower built through painful, radical reform of the kind Draghi has already set out.
“We can and must be in the room shaping Europe’s future, but the entry fee is paid with political capital. This comes from a clear commitment now in the government’s ten-year plan to rejoin once the EU has reformed. We don’t get a say by fighting the old battles of Leave and Remain, or by listing red lines on the relationship we don’t want.”