Following the 7 October assault on Israel by Hamas and the killing of Israelis and abduction of hostages, the pursuant Israel-Hamas war has led to unprecedented Palestinian casualties and destruction in Gaza. Almost a year on, efforts to secure a ceasefire and hostage deal face substantial obstacles, requiring intensive diplomatic efforts to create the conditions that will bring the war to an end in a way that provides Israel with the security it needs and Palestinians in Gaza with a different and better future.
In July and August 2024, we commissioned Zogby Research Services to carry out face-to-face polling across the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, surveying the attitudes of Palestinians towards the war, the Palestinian leadership and the future of Gaza. The poll is the second in a series conducted by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, focusing on Palestinian governance.
Our poll demonstrates that the population in Gaza is seeking a change, with the agency to govern themselves. When asked which entity they prefer to govern Gaza immediately after the war, only 7 per cent of Palestinians in Gaza said they wanted Hamas to govern the Strip. Gazans’ most popular choice is a Gazan administration of Gazan representatives, with international oversight and linked to the Palestinian Authority, or PA (29 per cent). In contrast, a plurality of West Bankers (38 per cent) prefers Hamas to govern Gaza post-war.
The poll found significant opposition to Hamas among Palestinians in Gaza, with almost nine in 10 in Gaza (87 per cent) holding Hamas responsible for the current situation, virtually equal to Israel (85 per cent). In contrast, fewer West Bankers (69 per cent) and East Jerusalemites (61 per cent) hold Hamas responsible for the conflict.
We also found that respondents in the West Bank and East Jerusalem are in strong agreement that the PA requires reform, with 81 per cent of West Bankers stating that moderate to deep reform is required. That said, Palestinians across the territory nonetheless remain optimistic that the PA represents a future state in the making (69 per cent on average) – this despite rising discontent with the PA.
The poll underlines the urgency of establishing a new reality for Gaza, and of providing Palestinians with a better future with agency to govern themselves, free from interference from Israel, while forging a path towards a two-state solution.
Explore this and other work by Zogby Research Services
Methodology:
Palestine 2023: Between 27 June and 18 July 2023, Zogby Research Services conducted face-to-face polling with over 1,500 Palestinians in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.
Palestine 2024: Between 22 July and 4 August 2024, Zogby Research Services conducted face-to-face polling with 1,463 Palestinians in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.