Geopolitics is evolving at speed. It is increasingly complex. New threats are emerging. Previously distinct policy areas now overlap. This all requires countries to adopt fundamentally different approaches to diplomacy.
The UK has a unique opportunity to do this in the context of the three Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) reviews underway, but the time is ripe for a rethink globally. Twentieth-century tools of statecraft are no longer fit for 21st-century challenges.
A Changed Context
Around the world, overlapping security crises involve both state and non-state actors, making conflicts more likely and more complex. Revisionist powers such as Russia are exploiting these fractures, forging new alliances – opportunistic as much as strategic – to pursue their goals. At the same time, unconventional forms of power projection, from economic coercion to advanced technological warfare, are reshaping interstate interactions.
These trends are playing out in specific ways.
The world is currently experiencing the highest levels of conflict at any point since the end of the second world war. Events in Ukraine highlight the changing nature of conflict and the evolving challenges it presents to countries such as the UK, both in security and in diplomatic terms.
The world is increasingly divided around a Global North and South, with non-aligned middle powers such as Turkey, India and Brazil playing important strategic roles. Within this constellation of countries, the United States and China stand out as the two “super superpowers”. Together they spend more on defence than the next 38 countries combined. This is an era in which middle-sized countries such as the UK are at risk of being left adrift without the right network of alliances, coupled with the right standalone capabilities.
The ways countries project and protect themselves are also evolving. For example, trade is increasingly political, with countries seeking to “friendshore” their trade. This requires a more holistic approach to diplomacy.
Alongside these trends are the game-changing implications of technology for all areas of policy and all areas of our lives. A diplomat from a century ago would likely feel largely at home with much of how foreign policy is conducted today. This is not sustainable in a fast-changing world profoundly shaped by technology.
Put simply, traditional diplomacy, while important, is struggling to keep pace with the scale and scope of change. The UK, like other countries, must adapt diplomatic strategies to address these challenges. The FCDO reviews currently underway provide an opportunity to align with this new approach and with the thinking on defence in the ongoing Strategic Defence Review.
It All Starts With Strategy
The building block for all of this is strategy. Without clarity and ambition, this opportunity for a rethink could easily pass. The scale of the change required will increase incrementally as time passes. It is the right moment to act.
The government must articulate a clear, compelling and radical overarching foreign-policy strategy that serves the economic and social interests of the British people. Because of the new groupings emerging globally, the UK – and similar-sized countries – needs to align with allies and nations whose goals complement its own. Alone it will not be able to match powers such as China or the United States on the global stage.
The UK’s size also means being smart with what it spends and what it spends it on. Resources should be deployed where and when they offer the greatest impact, guided by a disciplined strategic framework that acknowledges trade-offs. This framework must also link to how best the UK complements, and is complemented by, its allies.
How the UK enacts and delivers on this strategy is vital. The traditional pillars of statecraft – defence, diplomacy and development – in separation are insufficient to address modern challenges. The UK needs a nimble, flexible and integrated strategy that leverages domestic innovation and aligns all parts of government within a coherent framework.
A Changed Diplomatic Capability
Outside the European Union and with a new US administration incoming, the UK faces complex and interconnected challenges that demand fresh thinking. Other states will face different dynamics that equally require fresh approaches to diplomacy.
A clear, credible vision for Britain’s global role is an urgent and essential part of rebuilding diplomatic capacity and resources. This requires reassessing the UK’s global footprint and defining strategic partnerships, not only with traditional allies but also with non-aligned nations that can advance mutual interests. Technology should play a key role in rethinking and enhancing the UK’s diplomatic footprint, from embassy functions and ambassador briefings to enabling remote diplomatic activities.
The integration of global politics and economics also demands attention. Aligning economic policy with diplomacy – and leveraging the UK’s economic-security strategy – will strengthen both. This will require involvement from the centre of government to ensure the Treasury is actively engaged in the process to deliver the funding required to help the UK project and protect its interests. New thinking is also required on how trade and diplomacy intersect. Given shifting global trade patterns, a strong case can be made for aligning trade with diplomacy and development to give the UK a coherent and unified set of levers for statecraft.
A New Approach to Aid
UK foreign aid, once a global leader under the Department for International Development, has lost its way. It lacks a clear purpose, adequate funding and the capabilities required to meet today’s challenges. It is a critical part of the UK’s diplomatic capability and requires specific attention.
The challenge on development strategy is threefold. First, the lack of a clear strategy and objectives hinders the ability to identify what capabilities are needed. Second, this strategic vagueness is eroding organisational culture within the development policy team and the ability to attract top talent. Third, the UK has lost the institutional culture of learning, knowledge sharing and analytical rigour that once made it a global leader in development policy.
Rebuilding the aid model requires bold action.
The government should commit to restoring the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) budget to 0.7 per cent of gross national income and, more immediately, reduce the share of the ODA budget that is currently being spent on housing refugees inside the UK.
Beyond moral and development impact, foreign aid is of strategic importance for the UK in strengthening international partnerships, enhancing national security and advancing soft-power interests abroad.
But the aid agenda must move beyond outdated funding models, ensuring maximum flexibility to adapt priorities as needed and surge resources during crises. The FCDO should also seize this opportunity to innovate, investing in new technologies and partnerships, and reconceptualising where and how aid should be spent to most effectively align with national objectives. This calls for rethinking aid’s role in modern statecraft – leveraging technology to augment traditional aid but also utilising technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing as strategic tools for advancing UK global influence.
Reimagining Diplomacy
The world is shifting rapidly, with alliances evolving, trade patterns changing and conflicts escalating. As the UK recalibrates its role on the global stage, it must embrace a fundamental shift in how it approaches statecraft. Defence, diplomacy, development and trade must come together under a unified strategy that protects and promotes national interests while addressing global challenges. This will not only better arm the UK for a changed world, but also serve as a template for other nations.
Building on TBI’s work in 2024 on how the UK should rethink its defence posture, we will set out in 2025 a comprehensive vision for how governments, and the UK specifically, can navigate geopolitical complexities and define a clear role in a turbulent world. A safer, more prosperous future requires bold, innovative thinking and in 2025 TBI will make its contribution to reimagining diplomacy for a new era.