If current polling trends hold, the defining narrative of this week’s German federal election will be the rapid insurgency of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).
Long considered resistant to the advance of the far right, Germany now finds itself swept up in the broader structural trends disrupting politics across the democratic world. Traditional centre-left and centre-right parties, once dominant, have seen their combined vote share shrink. In 2000, they commanded around three-quarters of the vote across major Western democracies; today their combined share is just over half.
Germany is no exception. In the 2002 federal election, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Gerhard Schröder and the opposition centre-right Union coalition – formed by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) – won a combined 76 per cent of the vote. The latest opinion polls suggest the two biggest forces in German politics will receive less than 50 per cent of the vote in the next election.
But how have we reached this point, and what lessons are there for parties of the traditional centre ground battling insurgents worldwide? Using data from a Deltapoll survey of 2,000 German voters, commissioned by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, we can pinpoint several key factors reshaping German politics and fuelling the rise of the AfD.
Disruptive Delivery: The Unmet Demand in German Politics
Our recent report Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics outlines some clear drivers of this structural change in modern politics. Voters increasingly feel these traditional parties no longer represent their concerns, creating space for insurgent movements. Emerging demographic and generational trends are diverging from long-held assumptions – for instance, the belief that the next generation will be better off than the last.
Our report categorises voters as “Outsiders” and “Insiders”, with “Outsiders” feeling that they are victims of the political system, suspicious of experts” and apparently having given up on “traditional” political parties. These voters – who make up nearly a quarter of voters in Germany – are moving towards parties like the AfD in increasing numbers. But it isn’t ideology driving these voters. They are in the market for an answer to the pervasive sense of decline they feel around them.
A Surging Demand for Immigration Control
Mainstream German politics has long maintained a “firewall” against cooperation with the radical and far right, but this election campaign has challenged that notion. In January, CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s proposed five-point plan for stricter immigration measures was passed in a non-binding Bundestag vote – thanks to the support of the AfD.
Our data show the pressures that German politics is now under on migration. Across the six countries we surveyed, Germans were the most likely to cite immigration as one of their top concerns. With mainstream parties struggling to articulate a credible solution, or to foster a sense of control over migration levels and policies, the AfD has capitalised – presenting itself as the only force willing to take a hard and consistent line on the issue.
Figure 1 – Across the six countries we surveyed, rising immigration was most important to respondents in Germany
Source: Deltapoll for TBI
AfD Voters Are Most Likely to Doubt the “Generational Contract”
Germany is grappling with economic stagnation, evidenced by two consecutive years of GDP contraction, while rising energy costs have further exacerbated voter concerns. While our statistical analysis found that voters across the spectrum are united in economic pessimism, one of the key things distinguishing AfD voters is the strength of their sentiment.
A striking 57 per cent of AfD voters think children growing up today will be poorer than their parents – a stark contrast to the optimism that once defined Germany’s economic outlook.
Figure 2 – AfD voters are the most pessimistic about the financial future of children growing up in Germany today
Source: Deltapoll for TBI
Young Men Are Powering the AfD’s Rise
Our data found those aged under 35 were more likely to describe themselves as “supporters” of the AfD than voters over 65. This measure of “support” not only taps into whether or not a respondent votes for a party but also provides an indication of the strength of their allegiance to it.
Support for the AfD is particularly pronounced among younger men: while 17 per cent of men under 35 described themselves as AfD “supporters”, only 6 per cent of women in the same age bracket said the same. Among German voters as a whole, this gender divide was much narrower, with men over 35 only marginally (12 per cent) more likely to describe themselves as a “supporter” of the party than women (10 per cent).
Figure 3 – Young men are the demographic most likely to say they support the AfD
Source: Deltapoll for TBI
AfD Supporters Are More Climate-Sceptic Than Others Voting for Right and Radical Right Parties
The initial increase in support for the AfD in this parliament – which saw the party surge above the SPD in the polls – was not actually related to migration. Instead, it was in response to the three-party “traffic-light” government coalition’s handling of the net-zero transition and, in particular, its ban on gas boilers.
However, it is not just views on competence but core principles on green policy that distinguish AfD voters. Our cross-national polling showed that, compared with those voting for the National Rally in France, Reform in the UK and the Republican Party in the US, AfD “supporters” are significantly more likely to reject the idea of man-made climate change.
Figure 4 – Only a third of AfD voters think the world is becoming warmer as the result of human activity, compared to two-thirds of Le Pen voters and just under half of Reform voters
Source: Deltapoll for TBI
AfD Supporters Hold Markedly Different Views on the Media to Other Parties
The AfD’s strategic use of social media, particularly TikTok and Instagram, has helped drive a surge in support among younger voters. The disruption these platforms have caused in the way media is consumed and politics is experienced is increasingly shaping democratic politics.
A key difference between AfD “supporters” and the rest of the electorate is their level of trust in mainstream media. For Germans as a whole, trust in the media is evenly distributed. Yet more than half of AfD “supporters” rate their trust in mainstream news as a 3 out of 10 or lower.
Figure 5 – AfD supporters are much less likely than the average German to say they trust mainstream news
Source: Deltapoll for TBI
The AfD Surge: Temporary Backlash or Here to Stay?
Across the Western world, the era of predictable two-party dominance is fading, giving way to a more fluid and volatile political landscape. Insurgent parties like the AfD can no longer be dismissed as temporary outliers. Their rise, taking place against a backdrop of immigration anxieties, economic distress and shifting political norms, reflects the concerns of an electorate that has grown increasingly pessimistic and distrustful of mainstream parties.
The key question is whether this surge is a temporary backlash or a deeper political realignment. As the disconnect between mainstream political supply and voters’ expectations grows, insurgent movements offer not just radical but divisive options at the ballot box. Mainstream parties face a crucial test: can they defend against the rising tide of polarising politics by providing fresh ideas that bring voters together, rather than driving them apart?
Rather than radicalism being rejected outright, it should be redefined. By championing “disruptive delivery” – an agenda rooted in an embrace of technology, disruption of the old political paradigms and a focus on new, innovative solutions to the problems people face – liberal progressives can meet the demands of voters. This means delivering on issues like climate and immigration, using new tools and fresh policy ideas that disrupt the status quo and reimagine the state. The alternative, which Germany looks set to confront on Sunday, is a new political order.