Geopolitics has always had a profound link to domestic policy, but that is truer today than ever. Careful reflection will show that very few areas of our lives remain untouched by what is happening internationally. Energy costs, jobs, technology are all influenced by forces that cross borders. This is why understanding the world around us, how it is evolving and how we can engage with it is more important than ever.
Predicting the future of the world is always risky. But an even bigger risk is not trying to prepare for it at all. In this spirit, the Tony Blair Institute’s (TBI) Geopolitics practice partnered with JPMorgan Chase to support its recent International Council meeting, which brings together global leaders from government, business and academia each year to examine the big shifts transforming the global economy and politics.
The joint TBI–JPMorgan Chase paper, World Rewired: Navigating a Multi-Speed, Multipolar Order, sets out the key trends shaping the world, and how they are likely to play out at national and regional level. It also explores how key decision-makers in government and business can engage with this evolving landscape, not just to respond to what is happening, but to help shape it.
What Does the Unfolding World Look Like?
We are living through an unparalleled transition in global power and politics. Periods of disruption have happened before in history. But the world that is emerging is a patchwork order with no direct modern precedent. Influence is dispersed across many actors, unevenly distributed across domains and advancing at different speeds. In short, this is a multi-speed, multipolar order.
Institutions, designed for a different era, are struggling to adapt. Universal norms are increasingly disregarded. And the rules of the game are changing fast.
Yet global order is fragmenting but not collapsing. Cooperation endures where interests and values align: from traditional partners deepening their alliances through NATO and the Quad (a strategic partnership between the United States, Japan, India and Australia), to rivals identifying common ground on shared risks such as climate and AI safety.
These trends point to a world not in breakdown, but in transition into a more segmented order, where rivalry and interdependence coexist.
Dynamics of a New Geopolitical Era
Our analysis identifies three key dynamics that define this moment: fragmentation, cohesion and competition.
Fragmentation is widening divides as power disperses and global institutions stall. Trade, technology and security now move at different speeds in different parts of the world, making agility as important as scale.
Cohesion continues to exist through shared values and common challenges. Climate change, global health and AI safety all demand cooperation even among rivals.
Competition, especially between the US and China, defines the space in which others operate. Middle powers from India and the Gulf to South-East Asia and Latin America are gaining more room for manoeuvre, but within limits set by that rivalry.
These forces are structural, not cyclical. They are remaking how power and prosperity are distributed. For leaders, the task is not simply to understand this change but to navigate it, shape it, find ways to adapt early and turn volatility into advantage.
How Should We Respond to These Trends?
Across both politics and business, five lessons stand out.
Adapt early. In a multi-speed world, resilience depends less on prediction and more on agility. Adaptation is the new strategic edge. Those who adjust quickly to new realities, in supply chains, energy or technology for example, will stay ahead of disruption.
Shape the rules. The frameworks being written today for AI, climate and trade will define tomorrow’s global economy. True leadership means helping design those rules, not waiting to see what others decide.
Invest in trust. Values still matter. Alliances built on transparency and shared standards endure longer and move faster.
Build regional depth. Supply chains and partnerships are becoming more regional. Strength close to home can protect against shocks abroad.
Turn volatility into reform. Disruption can clear space for overdue change. With courage, instability can become a driver of renewal.
The paper looks ahead to how we see the world unfolding. It makes recommendations for how decision-makers should respond. It also makes clear, however, that this trajectory is not fixed or immovable.
The world that will exist a decade from now will be shaped by the decisions made today, by how governments design policy, how businesses invest and how societies choose to engage.
The future is not something we simply enter. It is something we build, decision by decision.