On 20 October, Moldova will hold a referendum on enshrining European Union membership in its constitution, while simultaneously holding its presidential election. The timing is significant; it comes as the war in Ukraine is reaching a critical point and, with it, as debates around European security strategy are becoming central to the new EU institutional cycle, particularly with regard to Russia. Europe faces mounting pressure to improve its military posture and create an EU joint military force.
These factors mean that the Republic of Moldova – a small Eastern European country that stands at the intersection of the Western, Russian and Turkish spheres of influence – could become one of the most interesting countries to watch over the remaining months of 2024. They also make a discussion about Moldova’s EU membership vital, particularly in terms of balancing the positives of membership with the challenges as part of a clear roadmap toward accession.
The context of Moldova’s accession is important. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically impacted the geopolitical landscape. Perhaps one of the less noticed – but still highly important – shifts occurred next door in Moldova, another frontline in the struggle against Russia, where Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine coincided with the presence of a reforming government with pro-European tendencies. As a result of these significant changes, Moldova joined Ukraine in formally requesting EU membership in March 2022.
Moldova’s geostrategic location makes it an important partner for the EU, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war and regional geopolitical challenges. Its proximity to Odesa, which Russia has regularly targeted throughout the war, puts Moldova close to the southern frontlines in Ukraine. Moldova has supported Ukraine by enabling the transit of goods through its territory towards other European countries, easing the risk of food insecurity linked to Russia’s invasion. Less acknowledged is the support Moldova has provided – and continues to provide – to Ukrainian refugees: numbers vary, but somewhere between 400,000 and 1,000,000 refugees have entered Moldova, with more than 100,000 remaining in the country.
Moldova’s geostrategic importance does not end with its border with Ukraine. The presence of Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria, as well as the presence of a significant ethnic-Russian minority population sympathetic to the Kremlin’s views and narratives, highlight the potential fragility of Moldova’s position and its geopolitical importance for Europe’s security.
The EU held the first Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) with Moldova on 25 June 2024, formally opening the accession process. The Negotiating Framework put forward at the IGC is intended to help both Moldova and EU member states navigate the accession process.
Moldova has opened negotiations on the “fundamentals” reform cluster comprising the chapters on: judiciary and fundamental rights; justice, freedom and security; public procurement; statistics; and financial control. The “fundamentals” are key to Moldova’s journey to EU membership, but other challenges and opportunities lie ahead in the other clusters: reforms to internal markets; competitiveness and inclusive growth; green agenda and sustainable connectivity; external relations; and resources, agriculture and cohesion.
As part of a fresh look at Moldova’s accession process, and where it goes next, it is worth evaluating the benefits of membership to both sides, as well as some of the challenges. This assessment will help establish a clear sense of where the process can go next.
A Stocktake on Membership
Benefits for Moldova
EU accession would bring vital benefits. Many Moldovans are in favour of EU accession for economic reasons. Bordered by Ukraine and Romania, many Moldovans have seen Romania’s GDP per capita double since joining the EU, while Ukraine’s war with Russia initially saw its economy contract by a third.
EU membership would bring access to the world’s largest single market and its more than 450 million consumers, significantly boosting Moldova’s export potential. It would present opportunities to attract increased foreign direct investment. Membership would also increase economic stability through alignment with European economic standards and policies, mitigating the risks of inflation, large-scale unemployment and wider economic volatility. Economic growth could potentially slow emigration from Moldova, with more viable long-term economic opportunities emerging domestically.
The financial support available through EU structural and cohesion funds could also foster economic stability and bring significant opportunities for infrastructure and public-sector investment. One notable example is agriculture: Moldova would significantly benefit from subsidies such as the Common Agricultural Policy (even accounting for the potential future restructuring of the mechanism) given that its agricultural sector accounts for around 12 per cent of GDP and employs 27 per cent of the labour force.
Accelerating Moldova’s accession into the European grid would improve its energy security, enabling it to procure energy from European partners while simultaneously reducing Russia’s ability to leverage energy against Chisinau.
Moldova’s security would also be strengthened by the EU’s mutual-defence clause, Article 42.7 in the Treaty of Lisbon, which obliges member states to respond with all means available to them if another member state is attacked. In addition, the European Defence Industrial Strategy set a clear, long-term vision to achieve defence industrial readiness in the EU. Moldova will also benefit from its proximity to Ukraine, which will continue to be a critical industrial hub for the production of defence systems and equipment.
Benefits for the EU
Moldova’s membership would also come with benefits for the EU, particularly in geopolitical terms. While there are practical gains to consider, the significant benefit would be the addition of an important new piece in Europe’s security posture and strategy.
Bringing Moldova into the EU would give European capitals the ability to ensure their own security on the continent’s eastern border, providing additional and more integrated protection against Russian aggression and hybrid attacks. Over a quarter of Moldovan citizens already hold EU citizenship through Romanian passports and Moldova’s accession would increase the EU’s ability to protect these dual nationals.
Furthermore, Moldova’s accession would deepen regional economic and trade integration. It would provide the EU with a further opportunity to underline the success of its economic and political model in raising living standards, in line with the successes of countries such as Romania, Poland and the Baltic states.
Accession would ensure Moldova avoids becoming trapped in a halfway house; on a pathway to joining the EU and reliant on EU funds for stability but unable to access the benefits of full membership. Not being a formal part of the EU will continue to leave Moldova vulnerable to Russian interference in all aspects of its society, exposed to disinformation and unable to scale up its economic development.
Moldova’s accession would likely not pose significant institutional challenges to the EU. Its modest size, both in terms of population and economy, would not impact the balance of power in the European Council and the European Parliament, nor would it dramatically impact the EU’s absorption capacity.
Hurdles on the Path to Membership
It is important to acknowledge, though, that Moldova’s path to accession comes with challenges that will require careful attention if they are to be properly mitigated. Moldova needs support from partners to reform further and more quickly, particularly in deepening institutional capacity that will enable it to rapidly implement necessary reforms to align with European standards.
Russian interference poses a core challenge. A sizeable minority of Moldovans are native Russian speakers, with many sympathetic to Russian culture. The Kremlin has sought to exploit this to keep Moldova in its sphere of influence. Examples include using disinformation campaigns to sway public opinion, exploiting cultural legacies, using corruption and criminal groups to finance pro-Russian political candidates, and attempts to incite protests if the Kremlin’s preferred candidates do not win. This issue requires deep attention and will be addressed in our future publications.
The unresolved status of Transnistria will also need to be addressed. The separatist region, whose leadership holds pro-Russian stances and resists the idea of closer integration with Europe, appealed to Russia for protection in February 2024. Furthermore, the presence of around 1,000 Russian troops in Transnistria as part of a “peacekeeping operation” is clearly a problem that will need to be addressed, given the difficulty of importing a frozen conflict involving Russia into the EU.
Where Next?
This assessment of the benefits offered by Moldova’s EU membership and the challenges it poses, aligned with the outcome of the IGC meeting in June, allows for fresh thought on where the process goes next.
The current Moldovan government has publicly declared its ambition to join the EU by 2030. The coming referendum could allow the country to take a further step forward, not just by enshrining Moldova’s European future in principle but by establishing a clear roadmap to membership. A positive vote from the Moldovan people committing to a future in the EU would give the government an opportunity to use the referendum as a catalyst to establish a clear timetable for reform. This roadmap should draw fully on the expertise of European and international partners in the reform journey, and provide both the EU and the Moldovan people with a step-by-step framework setting out when different reforms will be completed as the country works towards full membership.
The roadmap would build on the National Action Plan for the Accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union for 2024–2027, but would contain a simpler, political framework. It would sit above the National Action Plan, and future action plans, as a north star on the speed and direction of reform.
Conclusion
The renewed energy being directed towards EU enlargement because of the war in Ukraine will make the EU stronger. The major challenges Europe faces in the coming decades are largely geopolitical in nature and require an informed discussion on expansion to include strategically important countries.
Moldova’s accession will be vital in this regard. It would not only expand the EU’s single market, and increase development and cooperation in a key geopolitical region, but also help stabilise the EU’s eastern border at a crucial time.
A more secure Europe requires a more deeply integrated Moldova, along with an ambitious enlargement strategy for all candidate countries. The pathway to a deeply integrated Moldova requires careful attention on both sides to progress accession in a way that harnesses the benefits of membership while mitigating potential challenges.
Given the impending referendum and presidential election, it is an important time for Moldova to discuss membership. A clear pathway to accession, with a re-establishment of the benefits for both sides, will help to secure Moldova’s European future. This will involve not just a stocktake in Brussels and Chisinau, but Moldovan consideration of working with partners in European capitals to build on the existing National Action Plan for accession with a roadmap to full membership. October’s referendum is a chance not simply to enshrine the principle of a European future for Moldova, but an opportunity to set out a pathway to get there soon.