The Tony Blair Institute says the situation in the Sahel is so urgent and deteriorating that the international community must rethink its strategy towards it, creating a new Compact for the Sahel, which would include the “coup” regimes in the region.
Without it, the region will further destabilise and Europe faces a new wave of extremism and refugee outflows from the conflict-torn countries.
A new report from the Tony Blair Institute calls attention to the third global conflict raging right now, one that has already spilled across regional borders and has the potential to quickly reach UK and European shores, and stresses it is time to engage in the Sahel and with the leaders that are there now. There is no time to wait.
The report “A Path to Security: Renewing Relationships Within and Beyond the Sahel” outlines the risks of inaction – further instability and insecurity across the region, fuelling migration and refugee crises, increasing terrorism, and leaving the door open to “predatory actors” – and proposes a new, more constructive way forward.
Key recommendations:
A new Compact, that includes the new leadership across the Sahel to renew partnership between the wider international community, beyond Europe and North America, to include Turkey and the Gulf States, and leverage new and ambitious resources for the Sahel’s development.
Security-sector reform to restore the social contract between governments and citizens.
Support for governments to improve state services, prioritising constitutional norms, democratic principles and human rights.
Strengthen regional organisations and cooperation to ensure better information- and intelligence-sharing between Sahel countries and their neighbours.
Accelerate partnerships with coastal states to prevent the spread of insecurity beyond the Sahel.
TBI Executive Chairman Tony Blair said:
“Failure to engage all leaders in the Sahel now will guarantee that instability reaches well beyond its borders. A new Compact for the region is necessary to focus international efforts and set a new course for the region.
“Of course, we should continue to advocate a return to constitutional democracy and legitimacy across the Sahel in those countries which have suffered ‘coups’. But given the urgency of the situation and the deterioration in both security and development, there is little possibility of such a return unless the situation can be improved, and that requires pragmatic and targeted engagement with those regimes, for the purpose of stabilising the region and permitting a realistic prospect of constitutional government.
“Since 2020, the region has seen six coups occur in four countries, and the risk of contagion is real.
“Today, familiar predatory agents fan the flames of extremism, emboldening those who would further destabilise the region, all of which leads to consequences for the UK and Europe.”
The report’s author Geoffroi Montpetit, senior advisor at the Tony Blair Institute, said:
“The international community’s eyes are trained on the devastation in Ukraine and the Middle East for good reason, but the lack of coverage of the Sahel crisis does not diminish its global significance.
“We need to come to terms with the coups and address their root causes, by focusing on development, poverty, peacebuilding and governance issues. Connecting Sahel countries with donors to help resource these efforts will be essential.
“Disconnected citizens are the most vulnerable. The West can support national governments and regional organisations working to serve and protect more effectively, which fulfils promises made to their people and reestablishes much-needed trust.
“Neighbouring West and Central African countries have a stake in building peace and security. As violent extremism creeps toward their territories, they must strengthen their bonds, attract investments that serve them, and create opportunities to focus their youthful populations’ energy.”