Politicians need to focus less on targets and more on driving technological innovation.
The UK Climate Change Act should be refocused.
Exclusive new TBI polling across UK and Europe shows only a third of voters believe net-zero targets will be met.
Politicians need to broaden their focus from simply chasing UK targets to creating the right infrastructure and innovation needed to reduce global emissions, according to a new report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) published ahead of the next Future of Britain conference on 9 July. In Reimagining the UK’s Net-Zero Strategy, authors Tone Langengen, Hermione Dace and Lindy Fursman argue that, while climate targets are important goals, Britain should broaden its climate focus to global solutions, developing the technology which can not only help the UK to reach climate targets, but help the world meet net zero.
This is reinforced by exclusive new YouGov polling commissioned by TBI also published today. Polling the Politics of Net Zero polled over 15,000 voters across the UK and seven EU member states – Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal.
The research shows that only a third of people believe that their national government will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, dropping to less than a fifth for the UK only.
TBI Senior Policy Advisor Tone Langengen said:
“It’s time for political leaders to stop setting unrealistic new short-term goals, and double down on the technology and innovation that will deliver on the long-term commitments that have already been made.
“Targets have been an important driver of action in the past and the headline goals, such as Nationally Determined Contributions, have a critical role to play. But our research shows that leaders need to ensure that commitments have credibility. Voters are losing faith in the ability of governments to deliver on climate targets, particularly in the UK. This is the inevitable result of overly prescriptive short-term targets which limit innovation and set unrealistic expectations.
“Right now, the focus primarily on Britain’s targets is distorting policy without either creating the infrastructure capable of meeting those targets, or acknowledging the fact that the challenge in climate policy today is the energy transition in developing countries.
“The UK government also needs to recognise that our strength – and the critical need and opportunity – in the fight against climate change does not lie solely in reducing our own emissions, but in the impact our actions have globally. A radical approach to unleashing technological innovation and driving its adoption across the globe involves higher ambition for both the UK and the world.”
One of the drivers of scepticism among voters is the view that other countries won’t meet their net-zero targets. A huge majority (80 per cent across Europe, and 85 per cent of Britons) think China will not reach their stated climate goals. Voters across Europe are divided (55 per cent support, 45 per cent oppose) on whether their governments should lead on climate change if China is seen not to act.
This underlines why leaders in the UK must reimagine its net-zero strategy in a way that recognises that the UK produces only 1 per cent of global emissions, and that emissions are rising rapidly in the developing world. They call on the UK government to shift their outlook to focus not just on how they can drive reductions domestically, but also how they can create catalytic change across the world. The key to this is development of technology and unlocking financial barriers in developing countries.
Focusing on solutions is the way to bring voters back. The new TBI polling found that, when the success of technology and its potential for the future was explained, it increased belief that governments and businesses will achieve their goals. This is especially true among those who are most sceptical about climate action. For example, among those who identified as the most hardened climate sceptics, the tech message reduced opposition to the net-zero target from 86 per cent to 75 per cent.
Solutions
Reimagining the UK’s Net-Zero Strategy includes a number of proposals for how the state can be restructured to drive delivery:
Amend the Climate Change Act to give it more of an international focus and ensure it supports technological innovation. Under the Act, emission reductions are currently counted on a strict territorial basis and international carbon credits cannot count towards UK progress towards net zero. This needs to change. The Act also needs to be amended so that it no longer focuses only on the levers and technologies available today. This would encourage government to be bolder by reducing the risk of legal challenge such as the High Court ruling against the government at the beginning of May.
Move responsibility for plans for meeting the carbon budgets away from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero to the Treasury. This will better align carbon-emission reduction considerations with economic decisions. It will also provide more holistic consideration of climate targets and ambitions within the broader economic strategy and must be combined with a comprehensive review of how the Treasury considers climate change in economic and fiscal decisions.
Reform regulatory regimes to enable innovation in clean technology and make the regulatory system more agile and responsive to technological change.
Use government funding and regulatory powers strategically to create and shape the markets for clean technologies by updating the energy retail and wholesale markets to align with the physics of the system and technologies, and introducing new tailored market-shaping and funding schemes.
Increase UK climate leadership globally by leading international cooperation on research and innovation and instigating deployment and innovation of clean technology everywhere for maximum impact.
Improve trade and collaboration with Europe on energy and clean technology: The future of energy markets is not national, but regional. The UK should seek closer integration and trade with Europe, to improve economic opportunities for UK companies, as well as accelerate decarbonisation both in the UK and Europe.
Further info
Our Future of Britain initiative sets out a policy agenda for a new era of invention and innovation. This series focuses on how to deliver radical-yet-practical solutions – concrete plans to reimagine the state for the 21st century – with technology as the driving force.