Foreword by Peter Piot
Vaccine Efficacy and Strategy
The Status of Clinical Development
Administration and Immunity
Manufacturing and Access
Geopolitics of Vaccines
Bringing the Pandemic Under Control
- ^ Pfizer press release, “Update: Alberto Bourla discusses Covid-19 vaccine efficacy results,” Pfizer corporate website, 9 November 2020, available online at https://www.pfizer.co.uk/update-albert-bourla-discusses-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-results
- ^ Efficacy is assessed as prevention of virologically confirmed disease.
- ^ Ewen Callaway, “The coronavirus is mutating – does it matter? Nature, 8 September 2020, available online at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6: “A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome – a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV.”
- ^ Editorial, “Why decoding the immune response to Covid matters for vaccines,” Nature, 21 October 2020, available online at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02943-9
- ^ Victoria Rees, “EMA begins rolling review of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine,” European Pharmaceutical Review, 2 October 2020, available online at https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/129618/ema-begins-rolling-review-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
- ^ Annelies Gartner, Lizzie Roberts and Christopher Hope, “Covid-19 vaccine: When will a coronavirus jab be ready in the UK? The Telegraph, 1 November 2020, available online at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-19-vaccine-coronavirus-update-tracker-news-uk-oxford-jab/
- ^ Department of Health and Social Care, “Independent Report: JCVI: updated interim advice on priority groups for Covid-19 vaccination,” 25 September 2020, available online at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination#fnref:2
- ^ Barry R. Bloom, Ph.D., Glen J. Nowak, Ph.D., and Walter Orenstein, M.D, “When will we have a vaccine? Understanding questions and answers about Covid-19 vaccination,” New England Journal of Medicine, 8 September 2020, available online at https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2025331
- ^ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, “Largest global vaccine confidence survey reveals hesitancy hotspots,” 10 September 2020, available online at https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/largest-global-vaccine-confidence-survey-reveals-hesitancy-hotspots
- ^ Covid vaccine tracker, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, available online at https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_vaccine_landscape/
- ^ Several intranasal spray vaccines – in the UK, Canada, and China – are under early clinical development and are not treated in this paper; nor is Vaxart’s tablet candidate, which just entered phase I clinical trials.
- ^ Amy McKeever, “Dozens of COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Here are the ones to follow,” National Geographic, 24 September 2020, available online at https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-they-work-latest-developments-cvd/
- ^ Amanda Kelly, “Five latest facts about Johnson & Johnson’s investigational Covid-19 vaccine,” Johnson & Johnson website, 30 July 2020, available online at https://www.jnj.com/latest-news/latest-facts-news-about-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-candidate
- ^ BBC, “Covid: China’s Sinovac vaccine trial halted in Brazil,” BBC, 10 November 2020, available online at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54883383
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Kit Heren, “China begins emergency use of Covid-19 vaccine despite safety concerns,” Evening Standard 27 September 2020, available online at https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/china-emergency-use-covid19-despite-safety-concerns-a4556976.html
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Johnson & Johnson, “Johnson & Johnson Initiates Pivotal Global Phase 3 Clinical Trial of Janssen’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate,” 23 September 2020, available online at https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-initiates-pivotal-global-phase-3-clinical-trial-of-janssens-covid-19-vaccine-candidate
- ^ Kyle Blankenship, “Pfizer, Moderna’s coronavirus shot rollouts could freeze up, experts say, citing cold storage needs,” Fierce Pharma, 28 August 2020, available online at https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-moderna-s-covid-19-shot-rollouts-could-be-ice-as-analysts-question-cold
- ^ Ben Popken, “Pfizer readies ‘Herculean effort’ to distribute coronavirus vaccine,” NBC News, 9 November 2020, available online at https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/pfizer-readies-herculean-effort-distribute-coronavirus-vaccine-n1247147
- ^ Reuters, “Some Covid vaccines may have to be stored at Antarctic-level temperatures,” reprinted in Live Mint, 1 September 2020, available online at https://www.livemint.com/science/health/some-covid-vaccines-may-have-to-be-stored-at-antarctic-level-temperatures-11598944985739.html
- ^ Jaimy Lee, “Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates require ultra-low temperatures, raising questions about storage, distribution,” MarketWatch, 31 August 2020, available online at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-and-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-candidates-require-ultra-low-temperatures-raising-questions-about-storage-distribution-2020-08-27. See also Carolyn Y. Johnson, “A single-shot coronavirus vaccine from Johnson & Johnson will be tested in 60,000 people,” Washington Post, 23 September 2020, available online at https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/23/coronavirus-vaccine-jj-single-shot/
- ^ Archana Koirala, Ye Jin Joo, Ameneh Khatami, Clayton Chiu, Phiip N. Britton, “Vaccines for Covid-19: the current state of play,” Paediatric Respiratory Reviews, published online 2020 Jun 18, available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1526054220300956
- ^ Michael Peel, Donato Paolo Mancini, and Clive Cookson, “How much will a Covid-19 vaccine cost?” Financial Times, 23 October 2020, available online at https://www.ft.com/content/80f20d71-d7eb-4386-b0f2-0b19e4aed94d
- ^ Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, “Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination: What Everyone Should Know,” https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Malik Peiris, Gabriel M. Leung, “What can we expect from first generation Covid-19 vaccines, The Lancet, 21 September 2020, available online at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31976-0/fulltext
- ^ Phillip Krause, Thomas R. Fleming, Ira Longini, Ana-Maria Henao-Restrepo, and Richard Peto, “Covid-19 vaccines trials should seek worthwhile efficacy,” The Lancet, 27 August 2020, available online at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31821-3/fulltext.“Three issues are crucial in planning COVID-19 vaccine trials: (1) whether to demand not only proof of some vaccine efficacy but also proof of worthwhile efficacy; (2) whether the initial trials of vaccine against placebo should prioritise not only single-vaccine trials but also a multivaccine trial; and (3) whether to assess safety, protection against severe disease, and duration of protection by continuing blinded follow-up of the vaccine and placebo groups after definite evidence of short-term efficacy has emerged, but before an effective vaccine has been deployed locally in the general population.”
- ^ Peter Doshi and Eric Topol, “These Coronavirus Trials Don’t Answer the One Question We Need to Know,” New York Times, 22 September 2020, available online at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opinion/covid-vaccine-coronavirus.html
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Press release, “Pfizer and BioNTech propose expansion of pivotal Covid-19 vaccine trial,” Pfizer website, 12 September 2020, available online at https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-propose-expansion-pivotal-covid-19
- ^ Lauren Morello, "What we know – and don't – about Pfizer's promising vaccine results," Politico, 9 November 2020, available online at https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-effective-435304
- ^ Op. cit., Peter Doshi and Eric Topol.
- ^ Laura Spinney, “How the race for a Covid-19 vaccine is getting dirty,” The Guardian, 30 August 2020, available online at https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/30/how-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-got-dirty
- ^ “Novavax initiates phase 3 efficacy trial of Covid vaccine in the United Kingdom,” Drugs.com, 1 October 2020, available online at https://www.drugs.com/clinical_trials/novavax-initiates-phase-3-efficacy-trial-covid-19-vaccine-united-kingdom-18871.html
- ^ Adam Finn and Richard Malley, “A vaccine that stops Covid-19 won’t be enough,” New York Times, 24 August 2020, available online at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-prevention.html
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Alec Tyson, Courtney Johnson, and Cary Funk, “US public now divided over whether to get Covid-19 vaccine,” Pew Research website, 12 September 2020, available online at https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/17/u-s-public-now-divided-over-whether-to-get-covid-19-vaccine/
- ^ Katie Thomas, “Vaccine makers keep safety details quiet, alarming scientists,” New York Times, 13 September 2020, available online at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/science/coronavirus-vaccine-trials.html
- ^ CEPI, “CEPI establishes global network of laboratories to centralise assessment of Covid-19 vaccine candidates,” CEPI website, 2 October 2020, available online at https://cepi.net/news_cepi/cepi-establishes-global-network-of-laboratories-to-centralise-assessment-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidates/
- ^ CEPI, “CEPI survey assesses potential Covid-19 vaccine manufacturing supply,” 5 August 2020, available online at https://cepi.net/news_cepi/cepi-survey-assesses-potential-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing-capacity/
- ^ https://www.gavi.org/covax-facility
- ^ Prime Minister's speech to United Nations General Assembly: 26 September 2020, available online at https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-speech-to-un-general-assembly-26-september-2020
- ^ Sarah Wheaton, “EU to finance 88M coronavirus vaccine doses for poor countries,” Politico EU, 18 September 2020, available online at https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-finance-88m-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-for-poor-countries/
- ^ Adam Tooze, “The world is winning – and losing – the vaccine race,” Foreign Policy, 19 September 2020, available online at https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/19/the-world-is-losing-the-vaccine-race/
- ^ The Canadian Press, “Canada nails down 5th deal for potential COVID-19 vaccine,“ CBC website, 22 September 2020, available online at https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-vaccine-agreements-1.5734101
- ^ Rocky Swift, “Japan, eyeing Olympics, lines up half-billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine,” Reuters, 28 August 2020, available online at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-japan-idUSKBN25O0EW
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Sui-Lee Wee, “From Asia to Africa, China promotes its vaccines to win friends,” New York Times, 12 September 2020, available online at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/business/china-vaccine-diplomacy.html
- ^ Grady McGregor, “A state in Brazil says it may be among the first to deploy a Covid-19 vaccine,” Fortune, 6 October 2020, available online at https://fortune.com/2020/10/06/covid-vaccine-first-brazil-sao-paulo-sinovac/
- ^ Georgi Kantchev, “Russia strikes deals to sell its coronavirus vaccine internationally,” Wall Street Journal, 20 September 2020, available online at https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-strikes-deals-to-sell-its-coronavirus-vaccine-internationally-11600610554
- ^ Reuters staff, “Russia to supply Egypt with Covid-19 push in expansion push” Reuters, 30 September 2020, available online at https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine-egypt-idUSKBN26L0ZG
- ^ See Allison Aubrey, “A COVID-19 Vaccine May Be Only 50 per cent Effective. Is That Good Enough?”, NPR, 12 September 2020, available online at https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/12/911987987/a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-only-50-effective-is-that-good-enough. See also, Arnaud Fontanet and Simon Cauchemez, “Covid 19 herd immunity: where are we?” Nature Reviews Immunology volume 20, pages583–584(2020), available online at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00451-5
- ^ London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, “Largest global vaccine confidence survey reveals hesitancy hotspots,” op. cit.
- ^ Ibid.
- ^ Reuters Staff, “China's Sinovac coronavirus vaccine candidate appears safe, slightly weaker in elderly,” UK Reuters, 7 September 2020, available online at https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-sinovac/chinas-sinovac-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate-appears-safe-slightly-weaker-in-elderly-idUKKBN25Y1QM
- ^ The table and accompanying notes are taken from Peter Doshi, “Will Covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us,” BMJ 2020;371:m4037, available online at https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037.full.print