Figures 1A and 1B – UK trade with the EU, and UK exports to the EU as a percentage of UK GDP
Source: TBI analysis of ONS Balance of payments data, 2020.
Figure 2 – Breakdown of UK services exports to the EU by mode of supply
Source: TBI analysis of ONS data, experimental estimates, 2018.
Figure 3 – No-deal Brexit would reinforce the negative impacts of Covid-19
Figure 4 – The UK spend on state aid is below the EU27 average (as a percentage of GDP in current prices)
Figure 5 – Most of the UK’s state aid goes to environmental subsidies, R&D and support for SMEs
- ^ Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report 2019: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2019/november-2019
- ^ OECD, 2020, Economic Outlook: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/0d1d1e2e-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/0d1d1e2e-en
- ^ HM Government, EU-UK Statement following the High Level Meeting on 15 June 2020: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/eu-uk-statement-following-the-high-level-meeting-on-15-june
- ^ Tarrant and Tilford (2018), “Brexit and the UK’s Services Trade”, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change: https://institute.global/sites/default/files/articles/Brexit-and-the-UK-s-Services-Trade.pdf
- ^ Various aspects of the UK’s position on services resemble CETA. However, the UK has asked for more preferential commitments on the entry and stay of business professionals and investors; on the mutual recognition of qualifications; and further provisions on delivery services, audio-visual services and telecommunications, including cooperation on mobile roaming.
- ^ The Spectator, 2020, Full text of David Frost speech: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-text-top-uk-brexit-negotiator-david-frost-on-his-plans-for-an-eu-trade-deal
- ^ OBR, 2020
- ^ This can be seen, for example, in the European Council negotiating guidelines (2017; https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/) and, more recently, in the European Council negotiating mandate (2020; https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-annex-negotiating-directives.pdf).
- ^ This was agreed as the quid pro quo for Northern Ireland’s full access to the EU single market in goods. See Article 10, NI Protocol.
- ^ This follows from Art. 12, NI Protocol. The ECJ retains full jurisdiction.
- ^ This would be similar to enforcement of certain LPF provisions agreed in the Northern Ireland Protocol of November 2018, in Annex IV, Part IV, Art. 9.
- ^ See Art. 27(4) and 28(5) in the UK draft CFTA.
- ^ This solution also has a precedent in the Northern Ireland protocol of November 2018. Annex IV, Part II, Art. 3.
- ^ See, for example, this non-paper on enforcement of Sustainable Development chapters by DG Trade (2018): http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/february/tradoc_156618.pdf
- ^ HMG, 2020, UK-US FTA negotiations mandate: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869592/UK_US_FTA_negotiations.pdf
- ^ ONS, Balance of payments data, 2020.
- ^ ONS, Balance of payments data, 2020.
- ^ EU-Switzerland IFA provides a single dispute settlement mechanism contained within a separate treaty (https://www.fdfa.admin.ch/dam/dea/fr/documents/abkommen/Acccord-inst-Projet-de-texte_fr.pdf) covering a number of key market access agreements between the EU and Switzerland. EU-Ukraine provides a dispute settlement for the trade title of the agreement (Chapter 13, Art.303-321, EU-Ukraine AA); for specific provisions concerning provisions of EU law (Art. 322); and for all other parts of the agreement (Art. 477), which provides for political consultations.
- ^ The Financial Times, 2019, “Trading Costs Rise After Switzerland’s Loss of Market Access Rights”: https://www.ft.com/content/1aa1561a-dea5-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
- ^ There is extensive CJEU case-law on this issue. See, for example, CJEU Opinion 1/17: http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?docid=213502&text=&dir=&doclang=EN&part=1&occ=first&mode=DOC&pageIndex=0&cid=750432
- ^ UK-EU Political Declaration on the Future Relationship
- ^ The Telegraph, 2020, "Brexit Breakthrough Ahead as Negotiators Edge Toward Deal on Easier Extradition": https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/20/brexit-breakthrough-ahead-negotiatorsedge-toward-deal-easier/
- ^ European Commission, DG Trade, 2017, EU-Japan Agreement in Principle: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2017/july/tradoc_155693.doc.pdf; DG Trade, 2019, EU-Mercosur Agreement in Principle: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/june/tradoc_157964.pdf
- ^ The Guardian, 2020, “No More Deal or No Deal”: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/04/no-more-deal-or-no-deal-no-10s-brexit-diktat-to-foreign-office
- ^ Based on the data on the size of the acquis applicable to the single market from the EEA-Efta countries. This includes new and updated directives and regulations.