For those who believe in the European project and that Moldova’s future is best served within the European Union, the result of the recent referendum – which passed with 50.4 per cent in favour of deeper ties with the EU – is a relief. It was closer than hoped, but in the face of significant Russian interference has delivered a positive outcome.
After that sigh of relief, it is important that the result is seen as a wake-up call for the EU, Moldova and wider international partners in two ways: firstly, it serves as a warning of the evolving nature of Russia's threat, and secondly, it acts as a reminder of the importance of EU expansion as a geopolitical tool.
The implications across these two points have relevance beyond Moldova and beyond the immediate reaction to the referendum.
The first wake-up call from the referendum is on Russia and the threat it poses to Europe and beyond. For those following the referendum and wider politics in the region the fact of Russian interference will not be a surprise, but perhaps even for those observers the scope of it will have been. There are widespread media reports that Moscow spent up to $100 million on efforts to influence the vote, using networks that include exiled pro-Russian (Moldovan) billionaire Ilan Shor. President Maia Sandu has indicated that her government has evidence of 300,000 votes being influenced. Reports from Moldova also indicate examples of direct bribes – for example the distribution of Russian “Mir” payment cards containing vouchers of up to $100, to be cashed in in Transnistria in exchange for voting no. These efforts also included disinformation and destabilisation activities, for example anti-EU propaganda on and offline. The scale and scope of disinformation and wider hybrid warfare is growing quickly. The referendum is a reminder of the urgent need across Europe, and more widely, to be alert to this threat. Russia's aggression manifests in various forms that extend beyond the conventional warfare seen in Ukraine. Among these are destabilisation efforts and election interference, both of which have the potential to induce significant political shifts. Europe must recognise that, unless decisive action is taken, very few will be safe from this threat.
Second, the outcome of the referendum should serve as an important reminder to the EU that the process of accession is a critical geopolitical tool and a vital mechanism in the struggle to counteract Russia’s threat on the continent. In an era of multipolarity, Europe’s relevance will stand in its ability to maintain a credible accession process.
This means that countries like Moldova must be assured that they will find a place in the EU once they meet the necessary accession criteria – and that they will not be left waiting at the doorstep, where they are at risk of being drawn into Russia’s control.
Brussels has been right to give a strong focus to Ukraine’s accession, given the ongoing war there. At the same time, we must ensure that the broader group of accession countries receives the support they require. As the Tony Blair Institute wrote in August, Moldova needs a clear and credible roadmap to membership. This should set out a step-by-step framework for when and how different reforms will be undertaken to move Moldova towards full membership. Within this roadmap, priority and visibility should be given to reforms that will benefit ordinary Moldovans.
In conclusion, the referendum result should be viewed as a clear indication of Moldova's commitment to joining the EU, as the citizens voted in favour despite facing one of the most serious election-interference campaigns in recent history. At the same time, this outcome should serve as a serious wake-up call regarding the various forms of Russian aggression and Moscow’s will to shake up European democracies.
Furthermore, it underscores the importance of the accession process as a vital tool for the EU in broadening its sphere of influence and contributing to a safer Europe, of which Moldova is an integral part.