Drawing on work with 40+ political leaders globally, TBI sets out a vision of stronger governments by 2035 if leaders leverage artificial intelligence now.
While the US and China race at the frontier, Delivering AI Impact argues that low- and middle-income countries are positioned to lead adoption.
In the foreword, S. Krishnan, India’s Secretary, Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology, says, “The greatest public value from AI will come from solutions that are affordable, reliable and scalable.”
Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) should start treating AI as public infrastructure now to realise its potential by 2035, according to the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
In the new paper Delivering AI Impact: A Leadership Agenda for Turning Technology into Public Value, TBI draws on experience working with more than 40 countries’ leaders to set out how governments across the Global South can harness AI through strategic focus, disciplined execution and political leadership.
As global leaders look ahead to the India AI Impact Summit this week, the paper argues that the debate must move beyond principles and frontier risks.
While most depict the global AI agenda as a two-state race between the US and China, TBI argues that LMICs are uniquely positioned to lead the next phase by focusing on impact rather than frontier innovation. With fewer legacy systems and, in many cases, more favourable public attitudes towards technology, LMIC governments can redesign services for the AI era, embedding intelligence into everyday public functions and scaling what works. The paper lays out a “vision for 2035”, showing what countries could achieve for their citizens if they act now, underpinned by fewer fiscal constraints, trust and delivery.
TBI therefore suggests that AI should be treated as public infrastructure by LMICs. Just as previous development eras focused on roads, electricity and basic infrastructure, the AI era demands investment in digital public infrastructure, data systems, connectivity, compute and energy – foundations that allow AI to deliver public value.
The paper features a foreword by S. Krishnan, India’s Secretary of the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology. He lays out the opportunities for LMIC governments – particularly where external recommendations often don’t chime with fiscal and social realities – arguing that India’s own tech-powered progress demonstrates what can be achieved.
In his foreword to the paper, S. Krishnan, Secretary, Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology, India, said:
“The greatest public value from AI will come from solutions that are affordable, reliable and scalable – tools that fit the realities of schools, hospitals and frontline services where time is scarce and trust is essential.
“Impact will come not only from technological breakthroughs, but from governments that invest, experiment, execute and adopt at scale …
“India’s digital journey has shown what becomes possible when technology is linked to public purpose and delivered at population scale. Digital public infrastructure, interoperable payments and open platforms for service delivery have expanded inclusion, lowered costs and enabled vibrant innovation ecosystems across startups, public institutions and industry.”
TBI sets out four core priorities to make this vision of AI-powered development a reality: strengthening the centre of government, securing digital and energy infrastructure, building ecosystems to accelerate adoption, and developing practical governance that makes AI safe to scale.
Benedict Macon-Cooney, Chief AI and Innovation Officer at TBI, said:
“The leaders we work with all have one thing in common: ambition for their people. But they have to do more with less. AI is the key to navigating this new reality. We’ve seen first-hand that AI, when embedded into core public systems such as health, education, agriculture and public administration, offers a route to deliver services at scale, lower costs and improve outcomes for citizens.
“As we head into this week’s AI Impact Summit in India, every leader should be seeing AI as the most important item on their agenda. Ultimately it will be leadership, not tech, that will decide winners.”
The paper concludes that AI is not a replacement for development policy but is critical to its evolution. Countries that act now to integrate AI into the machinery of government can accelerate progress, strengthen trust and chart a more autonomous development path.