Disruptive Delivery: Reversing Decline, Transforming Britain

The political project of this government must be to stop decline and transform Britain. That is the central revelation of our exclusive polling. Whatever other narrative is in circulation ahead of a pivotal conference and budget, the evidence is clear: the British public is united in its sense of decline. It is the economy and immigration where this is most sharply felt, and where the public expects action. Its appetite is not for incrementalism but for bold, transformative change.

On the economy, voters consistently describe their experience through the lens of the cost-of-living crisis. Confidence in rising living standards is low and pessimism is widespread. On immigration, there is a strong perception that Britain has lost control of its borders, with concerns particularly acute among voters Labour needs to win back.

Our polling finds swing voters united around the need for a radical plan to restore growth, competitiveness and control. The only group marginally favouring an incremental path are those who already intend to vote Labour. Put another way, the voters Labour needs to recruit – whether Green, Liberal Democrat, Conservative or Reform – favour a bold, transformative plan for growth. It is a huge political opportunity that the government can seize.

At the last election, the party’s offer of change cut through. When Labour won a huge majority in 2024 on 34 per cent of the vote, it did so in a country united around one thing: a pervasive sense of decline. Before this landslide, TBI research found that more than 70 per cent of the electorate – almost all of those outside the traditional Conservative heartlands – felt that, without urgent action, the UK was heading for a period of decline.

This has endured. As we set out earlier this year in our report Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics, voters are giving up on a status-quo politics that is failing them. They want visible proof that government can act and deliver differently. This latest polling, commissioned by TBI and conducted by Deltapoll, underlines both the risks of falling short and the opportunity in rising to the challenge – through a bold plan anchored in economic renewal, border control and technology-driven public-service reform.

The enablers of such a plan – digital ID and AI – enjoy widespread support. Voters back the introduction of a digital ID to help restore confidence in immigration control and to upgrade public services. Indeed, this should be key to this government’s reform agenda – what “competition = choice” was to the last Labour government, “data-driven, personalised, preventative” can be to this government.

The conclusion is clear: to hold together the voter coalition that won in 2024 and expand it, the government must set out and deliver a bold programme to stop decline, starting with the economy and immigration, and underpinned by technology-driven reform.

A Volatile Electorate

Volatility is often seen as a challenge to mainstream politics, but there is a chance for Labour to use it to rebuild an electoral coalition. As new analysis from the British Election Study (BES) finds, voters are no longer loyal and instead are switching between parties at a historic pace.

Voters are particularly likely to move within blocs: to other liberal-left parties if they previously backed Labour, and to other conservative-right parties if they voted Conservative. Between 2019 and 2024, more than a quarter of voters switched to another party in the same bloc – say, Green to Labour or Conservative to Reform – while only around 12 per cent crossed blocs, such as from the Conservatives to Labour. Reform, as the leading insurgent party, has become the main beneficiary of this political churn.

This means the former “big two” parties in British politics must fight harder to hold onto support they once may have taken for granted. But for Labour in particular, as a party of government with an electoral base that spans the country, the challenge is greater: it must bridge these divisions and govern in the national interest. That challenge, however, also creates the opportunity. With voters more open than ever, Labour can build a new coalition across traditional divides.

Above all, this historic level of flux is a risk for parties resting on their laurels, but an opportunity for politicians ready to grasp the political moment. Our data show a majority of voters would rally behind a bold, transformative plan that ignites growth and upgrades Britain’s future.

A Coalition Against Decline

The polling lays bare deep pessimism about Britain’s future. More voters say they are worse off (38 per cent) versus better off (35 per cent) than their parents, and the outlook for the next few years is darker still: only 23 per cent expect to be better off, while 37 per cent personally expect to be worse off in the next few years. That net pessimism of minus 14 captures a prevailing mood of national decline.

A huge task for government is to make delivery feel visible and tangible to voters. Progress is happening, from wage growth to the rollout of expanded child care. Yet in a climate of deep pessimism, delivery must be experienced in people’s daily lives. That means transformative initiatives showing how government is harnessing technology to rebuild services for citizens – from the NHS App to the recently announced commitment to introduce digital ID, which we welcome as a genuine step forward.

This is where Disruptive Delivery is critical. Government must not only continue tackling the immediate priorities people care about – the NHS, the cost of living and concerns about small boats – but also anchor these efforts in a bold, transformative plan that reverses decline. By combining near-term delivery with a credible long-term vision, the government can demonstrate that renewal is not abstract, but tangible: a coalition-building agenda that shows decline can be arrested and a better future secured.

Our earlier Disruptive Delivery research revealed how the erosion of confidence in Britain’s future fuels disillusionment with the political centre and drives voters towards the extremes. This is not simply economic pessimism but a lived reality for those who feel life is becoming harder, not easier. In such a climate, incremental reform will not suffice. The public is looking for bold solutions that confront the sense of decline head-on.

In the analysis of our latest polling, we have split the current Reform vote into two groups: the “core” Reform voters who backed the party in July 2024; and the higher number of “new” Reform voters, who have switched to the party since the last general election.

Our polling also uncovers an important distinction between Reform’s “core” and its “new” supporters. While both groups share deep disillusionment with mainstream politics, their priorities diverge in telling ways. “Core” Reform voters remain more focused on cultural issues; 21 per cent highlight the erosion of traditional values and culture, compared with just 9 per cent of new supporters.

By contrast, “new” Reform voters are preoccupied with the failure of politicians to deliver. Some 24 per cent cite this as a key driver of decline, against only 13 per cent of “core” voters.

Crucially, “new” Reform voters are also much less likely to be concerned about the level of immigration but are equally as concerned as “core” Reform voters about the rise in small boats. The perceived loss of control in the migration system is the central challenge to winning back these voters.

Transforming Britain – The Most Patriotic Thing a Government Can Do

This year’s Labour Party Conference is set against a backdrop of not only a sense of decline but also the rise of Union Jack and St George’s flags on street corners across the country. This speaks to a deeper point around Britain’s national identity: who are we, what does it mean to be British and what values unite us?

A majority of voters (57 per cent) think the appearance of flags is a good thing. Only 23 per cent do not. Taken as a symbol of national identity, this shows there are many people who value patriotism but also feel their country is in decline. For them, the most patriotic thing government can do is not to wrap itself in a flag, but to arrest decline and transform Britain.

Support for flags does not equate to a particular ideology or economic disposition. Those who welcome the proliferation of flags are also more likely to favour a stronger relationship with Europe – and their demand for a bold, transformative plan is greater than that of the median voter. This underscores the point: the most patriotic thing government can do is not symbolism, but delivery – stopping decline and transforming Britain.

Delivering on Border Control and Migration

The effective management of borders and migration is pivotal because for many voters it is the most visible sign of national decline. Our polling highlights the demand for tangible control of the UK’s borders. This is not simply a concern of the right: while it is a defining issue for many who have moved to Reform, it also matters across the political spectrum. Political scientists call this “asymmetric polarisation” – the right is intensely concerned, but the left is not equally unconcerned. Restoring a sense of control is therefore politically vital, both to winning back disillusioned voters and to showing that government can reverse decline.

Overall, 46 per cent of voters support the solution of introducing a digital-ID system to help reduce small boats and illegal immigration, with backing strongest among Reform and Conservative voters. Strikingly, “new” Reform supporters are even more enthusiastic than the “core” base.

Despite deep scepticism among Reform voters that mainstream governments can deliver, both “new” and “core” Reform voters are more likely than not to think digital ID would help to reduce the number of small boats. Yet the sense is still lower than for voters of the traditional mainstream parties. This is exactly why disruptive delivery and clear demonstrations of the ability to tackle long-term problems with new solutions are so key to rebuilding trust.

As our recent report Time for Digital ID: A New Consensus for a State That Works showed, a majority of voters both support the principle of digital ID and see technology as an effective way to better manage the border and asylum system.

Delivering Better, Tech-Enabled Public Services

Trust in government will also depend on its ability to deliver effective, modern public services. For many voters, the state itself has become a symbol of decline. Here, technology is a visible way of proving that government can change course.

Our polling shows over a third of voters (38 per cent) support the use of AI to reform public services, with support strongest among younger adults aged 25 to 34, where a majority (51 per cent) are in favour. “New” Reform supporters are also ten points more likely than the “core” base to see automating tasks as a way of improving delivery.

This is the essence of Disruptive Delivery: not just efficiency, but trust. Personalised, technology-enabled delivery shows that the state can work differently and that decline can be reversed through visible improvements in people’s daily lives.

A Project to Stop Decline

The polling reveals a deep sense and shared diagnosis of Britain’s decline: cost-of-living pressures, uncontrolled borders and failing services. These are not partisan complaints but cut across all voters.

A clear majority (58 per cent) want the government to set out a bold plan for growth, underlining that economic confidence is not peripheral but the essential foundation for national renewal. Labour’s 2024 victory was a significant achievement, but it was united against something, not for it. That coalition cannot simply be held together.

This year’s party conference is the moment to set the direction. Much rhetoric is in circulation about what should define this government, but the evidence is clear: the political project of the coming years must be to stop decline. That is what the public feels most sharply in the economy and immigration, and it is where the government must show it is delivering.

Disruptive Delivery is the way to do it. From child-care expansion to the centrality of the app in NHS reform, there are already signs of progress. But to win back disillusioned voters, delivery must be felt more widely and anchored in a bold plan for growth, competitiveness and control of borders.

Incrementalism will not suffice. It is only through near-term results, made visible in people’s daily lives, and long-term transformation that Labour can show decline can be stopped and renewal made real. That is the political project that should define the government, and it is the most patriotic thing it can do: not just promise a better Britain, but deliver it.

Methodology

TBI commissioned Deltapoll to undertake a survey of voters in Britain. Deltapoll interviewed a representative sample of 1,960 adults in Great Britain online between 12 and 15 September 2025. The data have been weighted to be representative of the adult population in Britain as a whole by age, gender, education, region, 2024 general-election vote, 2016 referendum vote, political attention and social grade. Due to rounding of the polling data, data visualisations and figures may not add up to exactly 100 per cent.

The full data can be found here.