Recent elections in Georgia and Moldova have reignited concerns over Russian interference.
This interference takes many forms, targeting each country’s unique vulnerabilities. In many cases, the key exposure is a practical dependence on Russia, such as reliance on its energy supply.
While Moldova’s journey of reform and accession to the European Union is complex and still unfolding, the actions its government has taken to reduce the country’s reliance on Russian energy are instructive and worth exploring. They illustrate not only Moldova’s journey, but also how other countries, particularly those on the path to EU accession, can mitigate the vulnerabilities Russia exploits and confront the issue of Russian influence.
The Persistent Challenge of Russian Influence in Moldova
The Kremlin has long exerted political influence over Moldova, leveraging the country’s strong ties to Russian culture and language as well as its close business and security relationship with Transnistria. While the breakaway region is internationally recognised as part of Moldova, it retains de facto independence with Russian support. In the years since the Cold War, Russia has used disinformation and economic leverage to further diversify these links – all with the goal of keeping Moldova in its economic and political orbit.
Nowhere is this effort more clearly exemplified than in the widespread allegations of Russian interference in Moldova’s recent referendum and presidential election, which the Tony Blair Institute wrote about last month. Pro-Western, pro-EU-accession President Maia Sandu narrowly won both, with 50.35 per cent of the electorate voting in favour of deeper EU integration and around 55 per cent voting to give Sandu a second term.
A central lever of Russia’s influence in Moldova has been the energy supply. Moldova imports most of its energy from abroad, with Russia traditionally acting as a key supplier of both oil and gas. Until 2022, Moldova received nearly all of its gas from Russia. On top of this, more than 70 per cent of Moldova’s electricity supply comes from the Cuciurgan thermal power plant in Transnistria, which runs on Russian gas. A journey towards closer alignment with Europe therefore required a stronger focus on the issue of energy supply.
The Sandu Government’s Approach
Historical energy dependence came into stark focus in recent years through the war in Ukraine and wider provocative actions by the Kremlin.
In October 2021, Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom began to drive up prices in Moldova. By September 2022, the price of Russian gas in the country had increased by sevenfold, and in the following month the supply of gas was abruptly reduced to a quantity sufficient only for consumption in Transnistria. Moldova’s main thermal generator issued capacity warnings, necessitating drastic energy-saving measures. Between September and November 2022, Russian missile strikes against Ukraine’s electricity system, also a significant supplier to Moldova, caused repeated blackouts. The issue of tackling Moldova’s energy dependence had become acute.
The government deployed financial assistance and emergency generators to Moldovan citizens to mitigate the immediate problem. Alternative sources of gas, including liquified natural gas, and electricity imports from Romania were instrumental in allowing Moldova to withstand the shock.
The government took further steps to address dependence by deepening integration with European markets. Moldova joined the EU transmission operators’ network ENTSO-E as a first step towards fully integrating itself into the European grid and diversifying its energy source away from Transnistria and Russia. Joining the network gave Moldova access to a larger, more stable energy network and reduced its dependence on any single source. Funding to commence building grid interconnectors and upgrades was identified and work began – the first step of which is slated to be completed next year.
Moldova’s energy-reform efforts go beyond changing suppliers. They encompass a wider redefinition in the country’s approach to power, including a nationwide energy-efficiency effort. For example, efforts are underway to reduce the electricity needs of public buildings by 30 per cent. Losses from ageing infrastructure, poorly insulated buildings, inefficient appliances and heating systems, and poorly functioning markets represent an important opportunity to take demand out of the system and save on energy bills. The National Center for Sustainable Energy was also established to deliver programmes for residential upgrades, eco-voucher schemes, and the electrification of heating and cooking across the country. With 60 per cent of primary energy consumption coming from the building sector, these efforts could be as impactful as constructing a new large-scale generator.
This year, the government also invited bids for large-scale wind (105 megawatts) and solar (60 megawatts) capacity auctions and has accelerated upgrades to the electricity grid to improve efficiency, better interoperate with the EU-standard systems in neighbouring Romania and balance the additional renewable-energy capacity. These efforts form part of Moldova’s aim to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable sources from 10 per cent last year to 30 per cent by 2030.
At the same time, there is strong emphasis on fortifying critical systems against cyber-attacks, as Moldova’s energy system and companies have faced numerous incidents in recent years. Focus is also being put towards implementing regulatory and legislative reform to establish a functional and competitive market for both gas and electricity.
These efforts are part of a journey of reform that will take time, but is already yielding tangible results. As of late 2023, Moldova does not receive Russian gas directly for its mainland supply and it no longer purchases gas from Gazprom.
The energy market has stabilised and the runaway inflation, which exceeded 30 per cent in 2022, has been reduced to 4.5 per cent (consistent with the central bank’s monetary-policy strategy, targeting 5 per cent inflation within a band of plus or minus 1.5 per cent over an 18–24 month time horizon). However, challenges remain. Moldova remains highly reliant on imported fossil fuels and electricity; a significant portion of Moldova’s electricity still comes from Transnistria.
Gas deliveries have been an important patronage tool for the Kremlin. If Russian gas dried up, it would deprive Transnistria’s residents of highly discounted residential energy and thermal electricity, along with income from industrial sites such as Moldova Steel Works in Rîbnița. The Moldovan government would almost certainly be left to help those impacted by the economic collapse that would follow. While this would impose significant short-term costs on Moldova, over the long term, taking further steps to tackle this area of dependence could potentially eliminate one of the Kremlin’s remaining tools of influence and help prepare Moldova for deeper integration into the EU.
Lessons From Moldova
In an era of increased geopolitical uncertainty, rising Russian interference and the growing importance of alliances, Moldova’s reform pathway towards joining the EU offers valuable lessons.
By investing in renewable energy, modernising its infrastructure and integrating into the European energy market, Moldova is not only strengthening its resilience but also setting an example for other countries of a path towards ending dependence on Russia – and, in turn, reducing interference.
Every journey starts with a first step, and every long-term plan needs practical, quick wins along the way. Moldova’s path to energy independence will take time, but it has made important early progress: ending direct gas imports from Russia to the mainland is practically and symbolically important.
While the country has further to go on its path of reform towards EU accession, the progress it has made so far – such as identifying sources of vulnerability and setting out a clear course for action – demonstrates how states within Russia’s sphere of influence can gradually reduce Moscow’s leverage.